WZWH found that very interesting prediction of Galas by election outcome from Sakmongkol AK47 blog. Here..
UMNO and BN are undertaking a different approach in campaigning style. I have termed it as front porch or patio campaigning style. You engage people as people showing that you are sincere with. Sincerity is looked upon as high on the list.
The Ku Li Factor looms large in Gua Musang and Galas. The orang asli community does not want to entertain other than Ku Li or JHEO. Even the PA to the Sports Minister was turned away from a certain event. Orang Asli see Tengku Razaleigh as a sincere politician.
I listened in to an animated conversation among PAS people. If Tengku Razaliegh wins this seat, it will be seen as a victory also for PAS. They see TRH as a person sympathetic to the cause of Kelantan people. He is likely to be less partisan in his dealings with PAS people. To many PAS supporters, Ku Li is one of us.
There are 11,553 voters with 127 postal voters. In terms of racial breakdown, there are 7125 Malays, 2317 Chinese and 1889 orang Aslis and 185 Indians. The Thais number around 10.
The majority of the Chinese will vote for the BN. I would put it at 65% or 1500 will vote for BN. The Indians will likely vote for BN. BN will secure some 160 Indian votes. This time around 55% Malays will vote for the BN. That will constitute about 3900 votes. Most of the orang aslis will vote for the BN. I would say about 75% of them will vote for BN. That's about 1400
BN will take home around 6960 votes. PAS will get around 4500 votes. BN will win this election by a majority of around 2300-2400 votes.
Where will the 2000 majority come from? Most of it will be provided for by the urban Malays around Bandar baru Gua Musang in Taman Wangi and the government servants. They will also come from UMNO members who went over to the other side during the 2008 elections.
Pragmatism will take a front seat. There is a renewed confidence in the leadership of Ku Li and PM Najib. I have to say that it's a clever and deft move by the PM in agreeing to put Tengku Razaleigh as operations director. It shows the PM is coming to terms with the influence of Tengku Razaleigh and isn't afraid to leverage on this asset.
I hope when Muhyidin comes here tomorrow, he will remind all UMNO members that their votes are crucial too in ensuring a BN victory. He must not forget home ground support.
WZWH also thought UMNO will win with 50% of what Sakmongkol AK47 predicted that is winning within majority of 1100-1200 votes. God bless.