Nuffnang Ads

Pages

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Egypt After Hosni Mubarak: Muhammad Elbaradei OR Amr Moussa?

The two leaders that represent new hope of Egypt: Amr Moussa and Muhammad Elbaradei.

Discussion about Egypt politics is very interesting. Suppose likely that Mubarak regime gone, what will be the future Egypt leader? Here WZWH demonstrates the new leaders of Egypt Muhammad Elbaradei and Amr Moussa. Whom the people of Egypt will give trust?

Let us study the political people of Egypt:
  • Young Facebook users- it is too premature to measure the strength of these young people.
  • "Establishment" Reformers: Muhammad ElBaradei has been practically coronated by foreign observers yet his appeal is untested and his organization almost non-existent. He has link with Ikhwan Muslimin ( the Brotherhood).The Brotherhood will run on a joint ticket with him. If he has no strong opponent he will win the presidency and his party will be the largest in parliament.
  • "Good Government" Reformers: A small party (or parties) of honest true advocates for true democracy. These are the young people out demonstrating who have carried the weight of the revolution so far. But how many votes would they get? Very few.
  • The Mubarak Regime Supporters: The ruling NDP, even if it changes its name or appears in a totally new guise, could get anywhere from 0 to 25 %
  • The Left: Quasi-Marxists and extreme nationalists who may fragment or produce a joint ticket. They might get 5 to 10 %
But suppose Egyptians don't want the Brotherhood and they band together to support a secular candidate, who might win the presidential election? That brings us back to Amr Moussa, Arab League secretary-general . He's far more popular than ElBaradei, knows how to be a demagogue, is familiar and seems more of a known quantity, and is anti-Israel and anti-American enough to galvanize the masses. 

With ElBaradei, Egypt get the possibility of growing Islamism; with Moussa there is an updated form of radical Arab nationalism. 

In either case, the Muslim Brotherhood will not take power and Egypt will not become an Islamist state overnight. 

The Brotherhood is not stupid. While wealthy, secularized, urban Egyptians may look at them as a peasant rabble, this group has maneuvered very skillfully in the past. Does it have different factions and tendencies? Certainly it does. Yet it is going to be more united than any other political factor.

For the next three years, is not an Islamist Egypt but a radical Egypt. The idea of a "Turkish model" has been raised, that is an Islamist party in power that advances very slowly but steadily toward the goal. Such a government, however, would show itself most clearly in foreign policy, which is what other countries are most concerned with, of course.

Yet if Moussa wins there will also be a radical Egypt, closer to what existed in past decades before Mubarak, and before him Anwar al-Sadat, came to power.

Either way a post-regime Egypt is likely to move closer to Syria and Hamas, not Saudi Arabia and Jordan. It will not be a good friend to Iran but not very interested in combating its influence Terrorists, as long as they had other targets in mind, would pass freely through Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood's protection or the regime's indifference.

Will the Egypt-Gaza Strip border be opened up? As with all potential dangers we are told there is nothing to worry about. The new regime would not want to make Israel angry, lose U.S. aid, or defy the Egyptian army. But really, would the Obama Administration cut off aid if Egypt opened the border for everything, including weapons? ElBaradei has said he would end the blockade; Moussa would certainly do so.

And is the army going to be the bulwark of democracy in a new Egypt, Turkish style? Well, if the new republic is going to go to a coup we may be back in 1952, which is how the regime got started in the first place. But in discussing the army's role, observers are missing a key point.

It is conceivable that if the Muslim Brotherhood were going to take over the government altogether and make Egypt an Islamist republic, the army would take action. but that does not apply to a radical nationalist Egypt, with which many officers would sympathize, or even an ElBaradei government in which he maintained the army's budget and left it alone. 

They would accept a turn away from America (in which Egypt, like Turkey, could avoid any actual bilateral trouble with Washington); a high degree of hostility toward Israel; support for Hamas as long as it stays off Egyptian territory; and alignment with radical forces elsewhere, at least if they are Sunni. 

Along with the Turkish model, there's a pattern attractive to Egyptian Islamists: the Lebanese model. Hezb'allah, for all practical purposes, is running Lebanon today. But it is doing so behind a screen of non-Islamist politicians and many political alliances.

Of course, Hezb'allah has the advantage of help from Iran and Syria. Yet in Lebanon the Shia Muslims who form Hezb'allah's base are only 30 percent of the population. In Egypt, Sunni Muslims are 85 to 90 percent. Of course, many of them -- probably a majority -- would never support the Brotherhood, yet the Brotherhood's political base constitutes alone about the same size as Hezb'allah's direct support.

And even that is an underestimate because the Brotherhood will be cautious and try to rule through others, notably ElBaradei.

That is one good model for Egypt to emulate that is Malaysian Model which more moderate, progressive, vibrate and modern. If all muslim countries follow Malaysian Model the muslim world will advance fastly.

Once again, the problem is not an Islamist Egypt in a year or two but a radical Egypt that will wreak havoc on regional politics. At home, the new government would face dreadful economic problems without a way to deliver higher living standards. That's a formula for instability, demagoguery, and foreign adventure. 

One can also expect the development of small Islamist terrorist groups, coming out of the Brotherhood's impatient hardliners, as happened in the 1990s, to assassinate secular or moderate figures and to attack Christians and possibly tourists.

Egypt can becomes a stable moderate republic at peace with its neighbors and making its people happy and prosperous. But, as the Oslo process and Iranian revolution -- among other historical events -- have taught, letting one's hopes determine one's judgment is the road to disaster.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

WZWH,

Syabas ada petanda perubahan dan kemajuan.

2. Urang di Tembeling Valley udah faham Bahasa Inggeris @ OMPUTIH itu sebab nya WZWH menulis dalam OMPUTIH. Paradigm shift telah berlaku dan Dasar mempelajari Bahasa Inggeris dalam sains dan matematik telah berjaya. Impak nya sudah merata dari kuala sampai lah ke ulu senon termasuk ke ulu pengor.

3.Tapi harap-harap WZWH tidak CnP udah le.

4. JIka WZWH menganggap diri nya GERONIMO Lembah Tembeling dan Pejuang disitu, terjemah juga tulisan itu dalam Bahasa Melayu agar AKI dan WAN aku dapat baca...faham....dan ngerti buah fikiran Ong tu. Ong jangan terikut-ikut Bapak Sakmongkol AK47 kerana kumpulan sasar nya berbeza. Bos ong YB DOmpok tu ngerti dan understand ke apa yang ong tulis tu.

Apa katek nye Urag dRulug, Cenderong Ular?.

Maaf dan TK.

Anonymous said...

Akuk ambik dari tulisan UD dari Blog nya....Buat tatapan dan renongan Ong :

"ade sungai sungai dorh jadi taho
sungai dorh keroh berlumpor
ikan pun dorh tarok
ada sesiket ikan dorh kene bom de tuan hajiq


ada hutan dorh tarok dapat nork mencariq rutan
dorh tork dapat berhagaruq bercandan
leborh pon dorh tork endok buat sarang
hutan pon sudah de tebang
ulih urag yang banameq berhurmat
bukan nye endok membantu rakyat
tapi menamboh merumpok hark rakyat


ada pemimpin pemimpin budo
sekuloh rendoh tork lulus nye kateq sekuloh tinggi
kununnye lepas sapai ke universiti
pandainye hanyeq menipu rakyat
hidup rakyat makinlarh merimpat


dunieq tork tau maluq
bagaikan kemaluan penuh bebuluq
dua tangan menutup muke
habis napork segale bende
tegudey-gudey
tork memalu rupenye


PRU13 natiq
kiteq kene berhatiq-hatiq
memang kiteq kene pilih patiq
tapi pilih juga urag nyeq
kalau letok hark budo
atau hajiq hark tork beguneq
baik kita tulok sejeq
undi pembangkang larh napoknyeq"

( SUMBER : GURINDAM Urang DrRulug)

Anonymous said...

salam,
nampaknya urag drulug semakin merajuk dan kecewa.smua orang salah dan dia saje yang betul.saya sebagai orang luar jerantut menilai dan pernah juga singgah di blog nya merasakan ada sesuatu yang terbuku di hatinya tapi tak terluah.nasihat saya kepada beliau banyak2 bersabar.segala tuduhan perlukan bukti.jangan ikut sangat perangai pembangkang yang buat tuduhan melulu.kalau boleh sertakan bukti berbentuk dokumen atau transkrif atau laporan polis.barulah kita jadi gentlement.kalau tidak orang akan kata kita merapu atau gila babi.

Kutukan Dewata:orang tanam ubi,habis di sondol babi!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

anon 11:51, bukan memihak mana mana, tapi jika sudah ada beberapa orang yang telah berkta sesautu, takkan semua orang pembohong, atau saja menadakan cerita, li fikir lah sendiri