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Saturday, September 18, 2010

Realpolitik Cina Dan Hakikat Populasinya Mengecil


Proportion of Chinese in Malaysia total population
Year
Percent
195745.0 +
197035.6
198032.1
199126.9
200024.5
201022.6 *
203518.6 **
Numbers of Chinese in Malaysia
Year
Chinese (million)
Total population

(million)

19703.610.5
19804.413.7
19914.918.4
20005.723.3
20106.528.9 *
20357.741.1 **

    * Projection by Department of Statistics
    ** Projection in The Population of Malaysia (ISEAS)

WZWH sedang mengkaji kenapa populasi orang Cina mengecil? Kemana orang Cina pergi atau menghilang? Penurunan populasi orang Cina yang drastik mengundang persoalan.

Antara Mac 2008 hingga Ogos 2009, 50,000 pelajar belajar ke luar negara. Ramai yang tidak akan kembali. Juga ramai yang minta status PR di negara mereka belajar.

Terdapat 304,358 pelajar berdaftar dengan kedutaan Malaysia di luar negara hingga kini. Pasti modal insan yang majoriti berbangsa Cina ini tidak akan kembali ke Malaysia.

Mengikut kaum-kaum di Malaysia, orang Cina yang paling ramai berhijrah ke luar negara dan perubahan paling besar dari segi demografi.

Helen Ang menulis...

In the 80s decade, the Chinese had a negative net migration rate of -10.6 percent. “Between 1980 and 1991, the [Chinese] migration deficit was estimated at 391,801 persons as against a national increase of 777,339 persons,” statistician Tey Nai Peng found in his study.

Chinese annual growth rate also showed a consistent drop, recording only 53 percent between 1990 and 2000 during a period when the national population grew 123 percent.

Tey said in his paper ‘Causes and consequences of demographic change in the Chinese community in Malaysia’ that “the fertility of the Chinese declined from 4.6 children to 2.5 children between 1970 and 1997”. Comparatively, total fertility rate for Malays in 1987 remained a high 4.51 when TFR for Chinese was 2.25.

It is no longer true that Penang is a Chinese majority state. In 2010, Malays in Penang are projected to be 670,128 persons – outnumbering Chinese at 658,661. Between 1991 and 2000, Penang had an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent but Penang Chinese only 0.7 percent.

Perak has significant numbers of Chinese but still, Chinese registered a negative growth of -1.0 percent in 1991-2000 whereas the average annual rate of Perak population growth was a positive 0.4 percent.

The Department of Statistics records that in the 1990s, Chinese fell in number in Kelantan, Terengganu and Perlis too. In Malacca, Negri Sembilan and Pahang, Chinese were practically stagnant.

In Sabah, Chinese were 23 percent of the population in 1960 but shrunk to 10.1 percent in 2000. “In contrast, recent immigrants and refugees, with a population of 614,824 persons in 2000, form close to a quarter of the total population, or more than twice the size of the long-settled Chinese community,” writes Danny Wong Tze-Ken in his paper‘The Chinese population in Sabah’.


By year 2000, Chinese were mainly concentrated in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor. The Klang Valley accounted for 38 percent of all Chinese in the Peninsula. Nine out of 10 Chinese today are found in urban areas, concentrated in the major cities.

In the dozen years between 1980 and 1991 when the Malaysian population increase nationally was 4,634,500 persons, Chinese increase was only 530,400 persons.

It is conspicuous that among the younger age cohorts, Chinese are an even smaller proportion of the national average. On the other hand, among the elderly [60 years and above], Chinese constitute 5.4 percent of the population, as against the national average of 5 percent.

Among the ethnic groups in Malaysia, Chinese have the highest proportion of the elderly. “It is found that most of the ‘clients’ in nursing homes are the Chinese,” observes researcher Philip Poi Jun Hua in his essay 'Ageing among the Chinese in Malaysia: Some trends and issues'.

The statistics tell a very sobering story. In another short 25 years, Chinese will only be a mere 18.6 percent of the population. They will soon fall below the sustainable threshold for propagating their culture, and their diminishing numbers will only increase the pressure for assimilation – something Chinese are reluctant to do.

WZWH dapat merasakan DAP sudah tentu bimbang dengan trend populasi orang Cina secara drastiknya menurun. DAP terpaksa menggunakan Anwar Ibrahim untuk memujuk TG Nik Aziz dan Hadi Awang menjatuhkan UMNO dan BN secepat mungkin pada PRU 13 nanti.

WZWH dapat meramalkan lagi 5, 10, 15, 20 hingga 50 tahun seterusnya dengan pertambahan populasi orang Melayu bila pada tahun 2035 diramalkan populasi orang Cina hanya 18.6% dan semakin menurun hingga bawah 10% pada tahun 2060.

UMNO akan bangkit sebagai satu parti Melayu akan makin kuat dan ini akan menyebabkan orang Cina terpaksa menyokong MCA dan Gerakan kembali kerana DAP tidak akan pergi ke mana.

WZWH percaya pada PRU ke 13 nanti, majoriti orang Melayu akan menolak PAS dan PKR kerana kesedaran kenapa perlu menyokong UMNO kembali sudah ada. Walaupun pakar-pakar strategis Pakatan Rakyat tidak bersetuju tetapi WZWH sudah tunjukkan statistik demografi.

1 comment:

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